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CME probability at 75% for no rate change; discusses risk-reward ratio and historical accuracy of predictions.

From 10Y and 30Y Yields Are Exploding: Should You Be Worried? · jumps to 1:25:41 · speech

▶ Open at 1:25:41 on YouTube
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The data is fake, possibly. But this has been like the poly markets on these have been bang on based on whatever the CME says. And if you remember from like, I don't know, two FOMC meetings ago we discussed like whenever the CME number is over 60%, like 90% of the time, that's what actually happens. Right now, no change is at 75%. You know, this is a 0.3 to one reward to risk. Is it worth taking? I don't know. Maybe I'll wait a couple of weeks, but this might be something that's worth taking to get to yourself a free fucking couple Bandos.
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