Discusses prediction markets and how to evaluate trading tools based on thesis, risk management, and transaction costs.

There's a 70% probability you might win. And that's if they're not fixing the color of the candle on the other side, depending on which way the bets went, right? So if you look at prediction markets, and if you look at a lot of these industries that seem to be cropping up, I think that there is a real danger there. You need to kind of work out what usefulness they have, right? So look, you know, I'm a trader. I always think, look, go on a spot. position here. You want to physically buy the stock. I can go, I'm in the UK, I can go along with leveraged CFDs. That kind of contracts with difference. You don't have those stateside, but you'll have similar instruments. I can choose to take a position with options. They're just tools. I have a thesis and I can structure my trade using a bunch of different instruments in order to manage my risk. I think whatever pops up, especially with prediction markets and things like that, you have to kind of look at it as a tool and say, okay, you know, I have a trade, I have a thesis, I have an idea, and if I position myself using this choice