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Midrange closure creates 25% inside day probability and coin-flip directional odds.

From How I'd Learn To Trade Liquidity If I Started Over · jumps to 35:20 · speech

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So this is like worse than a coin flip. So when we close in the middle of the range, not as ideal. Beyond that, when the candle closes in the middle of its range, you actually have about a one in four chance. So 25% that the next daily candle is going to be an inside day, meaning that it doesn't take out either of these. So the next daily candle might look like this. So it doesn't take out the higher the low. Now I told you from earlier, right? Meaning one out of five times, it won't. This is one out of those five times, okay? When you get that middle range closure of yesterday's candle, the likelihood of the next daily candle taking out either side, there's a one in four chance that it takes out neither.
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